1/8 Card Chance
You could get very very very lucky, and have the 0.0000059% chance of getting a card every single run in 8 runs
You could get unlucky and have the 34% chance of having zero cards in 8 runs
The chance of getting 1 card in 8 runs is actually only 65%
You’d have to play 18 runs to get a 90% chance of having 1 card, and 30 times to get a ~99% chance of 1 card.
No matter how many runs you do, your chance of at least one card is never 100%
1/16 Letter Chance
Chance of receiving at least one letter from travelling (where x is Number of travelling cats)
Because there is a 1/16 (6.25%) chance of a cat sending back a letter, the more cats you send travelling, the higher the chance becomes
So,
With 1 cat that is a 0.0625 chance (~6%)
With 5 cats that is 0.276 (~27%)
With 10 cats that is 0.476 (~47%)
With 20 cats that is 0.725 (~72%)
With 30 cats that is 0.856 (~85%)
With 40 cats that is 0.924 (~92%)
With 50 cats that is 0.960 (~96%)
With 100 cats that is 0.998 (~99%)
19% Nestor Cat Chance
Nestor RNG ramble because I want to do maths rn
Probability of a cat from Nestor is 19%, that’s 0.19
Now, every 7th day is a guaranteed cat, so I’ll look at a 7 day period
Chance of getting 7 cats in a row: 0.000009, which is 0.0009%
Chance of getting zero cats: 0.22 or 22%
Chance of at least one cat: 0.77 or 77%
Before we got guaranteed cats, it would take 14 days to have a 95% chance of at least one cat from Nestor.
And it would take about 25 days for a 99% chance of at least one cat.
That 99% still didn’t guarantee you a cat, and that 99% never actually gets to 100%, it just gets really really close, which means there was still a chance of not getting a cat, however abysmally small.
